The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has revised its new car registration forecast for 2009 up by 100,000 units since the last quarterly revision in July 2009, to reflect the positive impact that the Scrappage Incentive Scheme is having on new car registrations.
Total new car registrations are anticipated to be down 9.6% for the full year with a further decline expected in 2010. The outlook remains challenging for vans but stability should occur over the next 12 months with further recovery in 2011 but volumes will remain below pre-recession levels.
UK new car and van registration volumes 2007 to 2011
|
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009F
|
2010F
|
2011F
|
|
New cars
|
2,404,007
|
2,131,795
|
1,928,100
|
1,777,100
|
1,858,700
|
|
% change
|
2.5%
|
-11.3%
|
-9.6%
|
-7.8%
|
4.6%
|
|
New vans
|
337,741
|
289,463
|
182,800
|
187,200
|
213,300
|
|
% change
|
3.2%
|
-14.3%
|
-36.8%
|
2.4%
|
13.9%
|
“The Scrappage Incentive Scheme has had a demonstrably positive impact on new car registrations in 2009 and will continue to do so into 2010. SMMT’s latest forecasts confirm that the recovery remains fragile and government needs to continue to give priority to measures that support consumer and business confidence.” said Paul Everitt, SMMT chief executive.
SMMT typically revises its forecasts on a quarterly basis with a panel of industry market analysts. The next forecast is due in January 2010.
Pre scrappage the lowest forecast for the 2009 market was 1.658 million units.
Notes:
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) is one of the largest and most influential trade associations in the UK. It supports the interests of the UK automotive industry at home and abroad, promoting a united position to government, stakeholders and the media.
The automotive industry is a vital part of the UK economy with £51 billion turnover and £10 billion value added. With over 800,000 jobs dependent on the industry, it accounts for 65% of total manufacturing turnover and invests £1 billion each year in R&D. In the last ten years, huge strides have been made to reduce the environmental impact of its products throughout the life cycle. Improvements in production processes mean energy used to produce each vehicle is down 24%, water use is down 45% and 57% less waste enters landfill sites. Average tailpipe CO2 emissions have also been slashed and are down 20% compared to 1999 levels. For more details, download SMMT’s tenth annual Sustainability Report or annual facts booklet from the SMMT website www.smmt.co.uk/category/reports/.
