EC New Car CO2 Regulation sets new car fleet average target to 2020.
Manufacturers developing lower CO2 emitting vehicles to meet regulation and consumer demand.
Integrated Approach can support push to lower carbon transport.
The EU New Car CO2 Regulation has set the pathway for new cars to deliver 95g/km CO2 fleet average, across the EU, by 2020. Achieving this target will be very challenging and likely to require a significant change in the type of vehicle bought, either with engine downsizing or a shift in propulsion type (eg to alternative fuels) becoming more widespread.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
New car CO2 emissions, UK actual to 2011 and EU target to 2020
A pick-up in economic growth or a reduction in fuel prices could undermine progress, if this leads to vehicle efficiency becoming less important to consumers. Conversely, greater consumer confidence and spending power would enable a shift to innovative low CO2 emitting technologies, which may command a price premium.
Industry remains committed to improving the efficiency of vehicles and is the largest spending sector on R&D in Europe. Improvements continue through reducing vehicle weight, aerodynamic and mechanical drag and more efficient ancillary devices and components. Achieving the target will depend on improvements in both traditional internal combustion engined vehicles (petrol and diesel) and the wider availability and uptake of alternatively-fuelled vehicles.
The industry is developing a wide range of alternatively-fuelled vehicles including pure electric, plug-in hybrid, range extender electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and conventional engine/hybrid vehicles. The focus at present is on pure electric and plug-in vehicles, but the future uptake of new models is very difficult to gauge. It will be dependent upon the price, running costs, residual values, fuel costs, consumer acceptance of new technology, comparable performance, range and ease of refuelling compared with traditional petrol and diesel-fuelled cars. Petrol and diesel vehicles will also see further improvements in CO2 performance, making comparisons constantly variable.
Technology to deliver further improvements to CO2 emissions
Recognising the need to adjust the portfolio of technologies the industry, working through the Automotive Council, has created road maps for new technologies for cars, CVs and off-highway vehicles. The pathway sees ICEs continue, a move to hybridisation and, in the longer-term, mass market EVs and fuel cell vehicles adding to the portfolio of technologies to realise lower CO2 emissions from transport.
Automotive Council – OEM Consensus Product Roadmap
Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs)
ICEs will be part of the portfolio of technologies used to deliver a lower CO2-emitting fleet. They have already made significant progress in reducing emissions over the past 15 years and notably so in recent years. The importance of ICEs is clear, given their current and expected future market dominance till at least 2020.
2012 saw a number of new Mini segment cars enter the market place, such as VW up!, SEAT Mii and Skoda Citigo. Further rivals are likely to appear from other competitors and engine downsizing across all segments is likely to be a feature of the new car market ahead. New, small capacity three-cylinder engines, are appearing in Supermini, Lower and Upper Medium segments. These offer CO2 savings of their own, and also by being smaller and lighter can enable the designers to make the cars themselves lighter, have better weight distribution and be more aerodynamically advanced. VW’s XL1 diesel car does 314mpg and has been built to showcase how traditionally fuelled cars can offer very impressive fuel efficiency.
The UK is a leading manufacturer of ICEs, producing some 2.5 million per annum. Improving ICEs is one of the top five R&D strategic technologies identified by the Automotive Council. Industry has already made several high profile announcements of investment into this area in the UK.
Alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFVs)
EVs and fuel cell vehicles offer zero CO2 emissions from the tailpipe. They can also offer other advantages in terms of improved air quality, less noise, greater security of supply of fuels and, in the case of EVs, potentially more convenient ways to refuel (if solutions to plugging in vehicles can be delivered). However, most AFVs have their own barriers to overcome, notably cost, range, refuelling time and lack of refuelling infrastructure. As technological hurdles are overcome and economies of scale are reached, AFVs should become ever more competitive.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
Analysis of technologies
The table below highlights some of the pros and cons of different propulsion technologies. It is evident that thee is no standout technology at present and industry remains technology neutral, developing a broad array of solutions and it remains too early to identify a definitive technology pathway at present.
The uptake of AFVs, including EVs, is difficult to forecast given the myriad factors which can influence these emerging technologies. To achieve the UK’s targets the Committee on Climate Change foresees the market for EVs and plug-in hybrids reaching 16% by 2020. Other forecasts are significantly lower. ACEA says original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) expect plug-in vehicle uptake within the range 3-10% in 2020-2025, depending on the infrastructure and supportive measures. Independent forecaster LMC forecast that 8.1% of European personal vehicles in 2021 will be electrified (4.6% mild, full and plug-in hybrids, and 3.5% battery EVs, range extender and fuel cells), whilst Morgan Stanley forecasts the global market for new cars to be 4.5% battery-only EVs by 2025.
It has taken over a decade to get AFV’s market share to 1.3% in the UK and faster progress will prove more challenging, until a tipping point is made through technological progress and affordability. The emergence of new technologies could lead to a shift in the purchasing model, with the balance potentially tilting away from traditional ownership towards more flexible mobility solutions.
BMW Group concluded a consumer trail with more than 600 MINI E vehicles globally, with 40 in the UK, in 2011. They discovered that everyday use of the electric MINIs did not radically differ from the typical driving patterns, in fact the daily journey distance of 29.7 miles was more than the 26.5 miles recorded by the control cars. Users found range limitations did not impact upon the majority of their journeys.
At present ultra-low carbon vehicles rely upon early adopters and benefit from government support, through grants and tax breaks. Government policies must reflect this reality and not be subject to change nor penalise early adopters. Continuation of the Plug-In Car Grant is welcome. The Budget 2012 announcement to remove the zero rating for EVs in CCT in 2015 risks damaging the emerging EV market. A consistent, clear, fair and long-term approach is essential to facilitate manufacturers, businesses and consumers to invest in more efficient technologies, and to ensure the products are competitive and desired.
In the shorter term the focus is on the emergence of these innovative technologies and the further gains internal combustion engines (ICEs) can make. ICEs have delivered far greater improvements in CO2 emissions than many envisaged. The importance of ICEs is clear, as even under the scenario of 10% of the market being AFVs (up from 1.3% in 2011) and half of those being EVs, average new car CO2 emissions would only fall by 6% to 130g/km. The ongoing development of mass market power trains is therefore crucial to deliver the market as a whole to achieve short-term targets on CO2 emissions.
However, at some point ICE development will inevitably approach the practical limits of thermal efficiency, just as developments in light weighting will be constrained by structural safety considerations. At this point new power trains will be required.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
Details of some of the new products manufacturers have brought (or intend to bring) to market over the next couple of years are listed below.
Technology
2013
2014+
Pure electric vehicles (EV)
Audi E-tron
BMW i3
Ford Focus BEV
Mercedes SLS Electric Drive
Renault Zoe
VW e-Golf
BMW active tourer
Citreon DS3 Electrum
Lexus if-cc
Mercedes B-Class EV
think! city car
VW e up!
Plug-in hybrid vehicles
BMW i8
Ford C-Max Energi
Ford Mondeo Energi
Hyundai i30
Mitsubishi PHEV
Porsche 918
Volvo V60 (diesel plug-in)
Audi A3 e-tron
Audi A4
Audi Q7
Honda Accord
Land Rover Range Rover
Mitsubishi Outlander
Porsche Panamera
VW Golf
VW up! hybrid
Range extender EV
BMW i3
Audi A1
Petrol/electric hybrids
Audi A8
Ford C-Max
McLaren P1
Ferrari LaFerrari
Diesel/electric hybrids
Land Rover Range Rover
Fuel cell
Nissan Terra
Hyundai ix35
HybridAir
Peugeot 2008
This list is not complete and launch dates are subject to change.
Most manufacturers are looking at a range of technologies to bring to the market. Several manufacturers are combining their resources to develop alternatively-fuelled vehicles, such as Ford, Nissan and Mercedes joint project to bring fuel cell vehicles to the market by 2017. PSA and Mercedes have been the first to offer diesel-electric hybrids in some of their ranges, this technology my appear across further of their ranges and is also being developed by other manufacturers. Volvo were the first to introduce a plug-in hybrid diesel to the UK market in 2013, VW is also developing such technology with the VW Cross Blue. Manufacturers not already in the petrol/electric hybrid market are also looking at this aspect of the market, with several manufacturers at the Geneva motor show displaying such models.
Integrated Approach (IA) to help facilitate progress to lower CO2-emitting vehicles
The shape of the new car fleet can be influenced by a number of factors and industry believes the Integrated Approach is the most efficient way of achieving the environmental goals. The IA is about all stakeholders – manufacturers, fuel providers, consumers, regulators and policy makers – moving cohesively towards aims which benefit society as a whole. Manufacturers need to develop and bring to market more efficient vehicles which meet consumer choice and are competitively priced. Consumers need to buy these products and be realistic in their expectations. Regulators and policy makers can provide a long-term and progressive framework to encourage market transformation (including any provision of infrastructure).
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
Matching environmental and industrial policy
Industry also calls for policy makers to ensure the taxation system and other policies are long-term and support the development of the ultra-low carbon vehicle market. There needs to be an understanding that it will take time for new technologies to become widely accepted by the public, especially during a period of low economic growth and constrained consumer and business spending.
Support for low and ultra-low carbon vehicles is a key area which underpins the UK’s efforts to be a lead market and industrial base for new technology. The UK has great potential to excel and develop an international competitive advantage in this field. Focussed work through the Automotive Council ensures that the industry has a coordinated strategy for the transition to low carbon technologies.
SMMT seeks confirmation from government on its cross-departmental strategy on low carbon vehicles. The strategy update from the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV) will be a key opportunity for government to demonstrate that it is pursuing a coordinated industrial, environmental and consumer agenda through the development and support of the low carbon vehicle market in the UK. A refocus of government policy on ultra-low carbon vehicle infrastructure is a priority for SMMT, with the current Plugged-In Places programme due to end soon. SMMT calls for government to look at a national charging network and ensure that its energy policy is fully aligned with the move to low carbon vehicles.
In March 2013 UK H2 Mobility (a joint business and government group) is expected to report in detail on the potential for hydrogen transport in the UK, production pathways and distribution options, fuel cell electric vehicle supply, customer demand and the hydrogen refuelling station requirements. It will then move on to the business case for hydrogen.
There have been concerns that, given the state of public finances, the government may reduce the support for ultra-low carbon vehicles and push up motoring taxes. The industry recognises that motoring taxes are in place to influence vehicle purchase and use choices, as well as to collect revenue for general government spending. A clear, consistent, fair and long-term approach to motoring taxation and support for ultra-low carbon vehicles is necessary to help the market shift.
The Committee on Climate Change, like industry, has called for the Budget 2012 decision to remove the lower rates of Company Car Tax (CCT) for electric vehicles and ultra-low carbon vehicles to be reversed to help these sections of the market to take root. In 2012 over 80% of EVs were registered by fleets and business. These buyers are very sensitive to taxation measures and following the announcement there was a slowdown in EV registrations.
Industry also believes that there should be no radical reform of VED until at least 2020. In Budget 2012, government said it would review VED over the medium term. Industry believes VED should provide a gradual and predictable pathway encouraging lower emitting vehicles, but while the marketplace is fragile the government should not look to impose a financial burden on the sector nor disruptively revise the CO2 bands. Industry has also called for the proposed change in 2013 to the Writing Down Allowance (from 160g/km to 130g/km CO2) to be delayed by a year.
Business and consumers have broadly welcomed measures to postpone fuel duty rises, given the general increases in oil prices and concerns over the inflationary impacts of rising fuel prices on consumers and businesses. The announcement that the 3% penalty on diesels in CCT will be removed in 2016 was welcomed. There needs to be acceptance that measures to achieve tighter Euro standards limit the rate of future fuel efficiency.
Biofuels
Biofuels can also help the vehicle fleet deliver CO2 savings. The Committee on Climate Change supports a rise to an 8% share of biofuel in the petrol/diesel mix (up from around 3% currently), as long as the fuel is sustainably sourced and does not detract from food supplies. Industry is developing cars capable of running on higher blends.
Government procurement policy
Government can also do more to support the move to lower carbon vehicles, through its own vehicle replacement programme, which legally must consider fuel consumption and emissions, and enhanced information provision to consumers.
Local agenda
Local authorities can influence the type of vehicle bought and used in their area, through measures such as CO2-based road pricing or parking fees. London’s Congestion Charge scheme is arguably the largest and most influential of these types of schemes. At present proposals to allow discounts to cars emitting less than 75g/km of CO2, rather than 100g/km, are being consulted upon. This would significantly cut the number of eligible vehicles and focus the incentive on ultra-low carbon vehicles.
Car clubs and mobility schemes
Car clubs and mobility solutions are also changing the way people gain access to cars. This enables people to use a car fit for its specific journey purpose, rather than the single vehicle an owner would typically have at their disposal. Such innovative solutions could be designed to cut emissions from the car fleet. Similarly, fleet providers could become more influential in the type of vehicles they make available for users to choose from.
Technical solutions are only as good as the way in which the vehicles are used. There remains significant potential for real world CO2 savings through ecodriving.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
UK manufacturers’ performance and outlook
UK vehicle producers have seen output recover from the recession. However, market conditions, especially for those with a reliance on markets in mainland Europe, remained challenging. UK manufacturers have benefitted from having products that were recently launched and well received by the market, as well as increasingly exporting to markets outside the EU.
Vehicle manufacturers have communicated improved vehicle efficiency strongly, to encourage consumers to replace their vehicles and receive the benefits of lower running costs. Several of the UK manufacturers make best-in-class type products for the market. Toyota GB in Burnaston was the first manufacturer in Europe to produce mainstream hybrid models. The hybrid Auris emits just 89g/km. The 1.4 litre diesel Auris also produces less than 100g/km of CO2. Vauxhall’s Astra, Honda’s Civic and the MINI are also available in sub-100g/km variants. The Nissan Qashqai, offering Dual Purpose styling and driving position, is available in a 119g/km variant.
Production of the electric Nissan LEAF range will start in the UK in 2013. The LEAF is to be powered by batteries produced in Sunderland. Other UK manufacturers are developing hybrid models and several low-volume manufacturers are also developing electric vehicles. The industry in the UK is developing and producing some 2.5 million highly efficient internal combustion engines, with BMW’s Hams Hall plant and Ford’s plants producing some of the new efficient engines to be fitted into vehicles produced in the UK and also overseas. Ford’s acclaimed new three-cylinder engine was designed at the Dunton Technical Centre. The UK automotive sector also has a strong history in light-weighting with Jaguar Land Rover’s use of aluminium and low volume manufacturers, such as Lotus and McLaren, using plastic composites and carbon fibre.
Support for low and ultra-low carbon vehicles is a key area which underpins the UK’s efforts to be a lead market and industrial base for new technology. The UK has great potential to excel and develop an international competitive advantage in this field. Focussed work through the Automotive Council ensures that the industry has a coordinated strategy for the transition to low carbon technologies.
To ensure the UK remains one of the leading destinations for foreign direct investment and to build upon investments already committed by the automotive sector, it is imperative that the overall UK business environment is competitive and provides a distinct rationale and incentive for companies to invest.
Government should look to ensure science and innovation funding reflects key UK industrial strengths, has a scale that is internationally competitive and is delivered through tried and tested routes such as the Technology Strategy Board or centres of excellence.
The creation and support of a joint government-industry funded Automotive Advanced Propulsion Centre of Excellence – a new collaborative R&D facility for the development of low carbon propulsion systems and their supply chains – would help enable the UK to strengthen its position in the supply of low carbon technologies.
Government could also support the Regional Growth Fund and Advanced Manufacturing Supply Chain Fund and putting them on a permanent footing.
SMMT calls on government to reaffirm its cross-departmental strategy on low carbon vehicles through the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV). The forthcoming strategy update from OLEV will be a key opportunity for government to demonstrate that it is pursuing a coordinated industrial, environmental and consumer agenda through the development and support of the low carbon vehicle market in the UK. A refocus of government policy on ultra-low carbon vehicle infrastructure is a priority for SMMT, where the current Plugged-In Places programme is due to expire. SMMT calls for government to look at a national charging network and ensure that its energy policy is fully aligned behind the move to low carbon vehicles.
The UK motor industry is already well placed to help lead the development and manufacture of lower CO2 emitting vehicles. It is imperative that environmental policy and industrial strategy agendas work together to ensure that while the UK moves towards a lower carbon economy and lower CO2 emitting fleet, it is done by enabling domestic manufacturers to help support this transition. This will lead to job and wealth creation, benefitting the wider UK economy and also potentially support further growth in exporting technologies, UK produced vehicles and components to other markets.
Summary
Industry is working to deliver more fuel efficient and lower CO2 products. This will help contribute to improving the environmental profile of the vehicle fleet and their use will help deliver savings in total CO2 emissions. The rate of progress and uptake of new technologies will be critical to achieving these aims. It is likely to require consumers to undertake step changes in their choice of vehicle, either through fuel switching or vehicle type, and also to maintain, drive and use that vehicle appropriately. Support for more significant switching of vehicles is likely to require a push by regulators and policy makers to shape consumer demand, but the pathway should be clearly set out and the development progressive rather than radical.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
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Outlook for new car CO2 emissions
Report contents: New car CO2 emissions | Influences on new car CO2 emissions | Total CO2 and other emissions | Light Commercial Vehicle CO2 emissions | Outlook for new car CO2 emissions
Page contents: Actual versus EU targets | OEM Consensus Product Roadmap | Analysis of technologies | Environmental and industrial policy | UK production
The EU New Car CO2 Regulation has set the pathway for new cars to deliver 95g/km CO2 fleet average, across the EU, by 2020. Achieving this target will be very challenging and likely to require a significant change in the type of vehicle bought, either with engine downsizing or a shift in propulsion type (eg to alternative fuels) becoming more widespread.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
New car CO2 emissions, UK actual to 2011 and EU target to 2020
A pick-up in economic growth or a reduction in fuel prices could undermine progress, if this leads to vehicle efficiency becoming less important to consumers. Conversely, greater consumer confidence and spending power would enable a shift to innovative low CO2 emitting technologies, which may command a price premium.
Industry remains committed to improving the efficiency of vehicles and is the largest spending sector on R&D in Europe. Improvements continue through reducing vehicle weight, aerodynamic and mechanical drag and more efficient ancillary devices and components. Achieving the target will depend on improvements in both traditional internal combustion engined vehicles (petrol and diesel) and the wider availability and uptake of alternatively-fuelled vehicles.
The industry is developing a wide range of alternatively-fuelled vehicles including pure electric, plug-in hybrid, range extender electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and conventional engine/hybrid vehicles. The focus at present is on pure electric and plug-in vehicles, but the future uptake of new models is very difficult to gauge. It will be dependent upon the price, running costs, residual values, fuel costs, consumer acceptance of new technology, comparable performance, range and ease of refuelling compared with traditional petrol and diesel-fuelled cars. Petrol and diesel vehicles will also see further improvements in CO2 performance, making comparisons constantly variable.
Technology to deliver further improvements to CO2 emissions
Recognising the need to adjust the portfolio of technologies the industry, working through the Automotive Council, has created road maps for new technologies for cars, CVs and off-highway vehicles. The pathway sees ICEs continue, a move to hybridisation and, in the longer-term, mass market EVs and fuel cell vehicles adding to the portfolio of technologies to realise lower CO2 emissions from transport.
Automotive Council – OEM Consensus Product Roadmap
Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs)
ICEs will be part of the portfolio of technologies used to deliver a lower CO2-emitting fleet. They have already made significant progress in reducing emissions over the past 15 years and notably so in recent years. The importance of ICEs is clear, given their current and expected future market dominance till at least 2020.
2012 saw a number of new Mini segment cars enter the market place, such as VW up!, SEAT Mii and Skoda Citigo. Further rivals are likely to appear from other competitors and engine downsizing across all segments is likely to be a feature of the new car market ahead. New, small capacity three-cylinder engines, are appearing in Supermini, Lower and Upper Medium segments. These offer CO2 savings of their own, and also by being smaller and lighter can enable the designers to make the cars themselves lighter, have better weight distribution and be more aerodynamically advanced. VW’s XL1 diesel car does 314mpg and has been built to showcase how traditionally fuelled cars can offer very impressive fuel efficiency.
The UK is a leading manufacturer of ICEs, producing some 2.5 million per annum. Improving ICEs is one of the top five R&D strategic technologies identified by the Automotive Council. Industry has already made several high profile announcements of investment into this area in the UK.
Alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFVs)
EVs and fuel cell vehicles offer zero CO2 emissions from the tailpipe. They can also offer other advantages in terms of improved air quality, less noise, greater security of supply of fuels and, in the case of EVs, potentially more convenient ways to refuel (if solutions to plugging in vehicles can be delivered). However, most AFVs have their own barriers to overcome, notably cost, range, refuelling time and lack of refuelling infrastructure. As technological hurdles are overcome and economies of scale are reached, AFVs should become ever more competitive.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
Analysis of technologies
The table below highlights some of the pros and cons of different propulsion technologies. It is evident that thee is no standout technology at present and industry remains technology neutral, developing a broad array of solutions and it remains too early to identify a definitive technology pathway at present.
The uptake of AFVs, including EVs, is difficult to forecast given the myriad factors which can influence these emerging technologies. To achieve the UK’s targets the Committee on Climate Change foresees the market for EVs and plug-in hybrids reaching 16% by 2020. Other forecasts are significantly lower. ACEA says original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) expect plug-in vehicle uptake within the range 3-10% in 2020-2025, depending on the infrastructure and supportive measures. Independent forecaster LMC forecast that 8.1% of European personal vehicles in 2021 will be electrified (4.6% mild, full and plug-in hybrids, and 3.5% battery EVs, range extender and fuel cells), whilst Morgan Stanley forecasts the global market for new cars to be 4.5% battery-only EVs by 2025.
It has taken over a decade to get AFV’s market share to 1.3% in the UK and faster progress will prove more challenging, until a tipping point is made through technological progress and affordability. The emergence of new technologies could lead to a shift in the purchasing model, with the balance potentially tilting away from traditional ownership towards more flexible mobility solutions.
BMW Group concluded a consumer trail with more than 600 MINI E vehicles globally, with 40 in the UK, in 2011. They discovered that everyday use of the electric MINIs did not radically differ from the typical driving patterns, in fact the daily journey distance of 29.7 miles was more than the 26.5 miles recorded by the control cars. Users found range limitations did not impact upon the majority of their journeys.
At present ultra-low carbon vehicles rely upon early adopters and benefit from government support, through grants and tax breaks. Government policies must reflect this reality and not be subject to change nor penalise early adopters. Continuation of the Plug-In Car Grant is welcome. The Budget 2012 announcement to remove the zero rating for EVs in CCT in 2015 risks damaging the emerging EV market. A consistent, clear, fair and long-term approach is essential to facilitate manufacturers, businesses and consumers to invest in more efficient technologies, and to ensure the products are competitive and desired.
In the shorter term the focus is on the emergence of these innovative technologies and the further gains internal combustion engines (ICEs) can make. ICEs have delivered far greater improvements in CO2 emissions than many envisaged. The importance of ICEs is clear, as even under the scenario of 10% of the market being AFVs (up from 1.3% in 2011) and half of those being EVs, average new car CO2 emissions would only fall by 6% to 130g/km. The ongoing development of mass market power trains is therefore crucial to deliver the market as a whole to achieve short-term targets on CO2 emissions.
However, at some point ICE development will inevitably approach the practical limits of thermal efficiency, just as developments in light weighting will be constrained by structural safety considerations. At this point new power trains will be required.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
Details of some of the new products manufacturers have brought (or intend to bring) to market over the next couple of years are listed below.
BMW i3
Ford Focus BEV
Mercedes SLS Electric Drive
Renault Zoe
VW e-Golf
Citreon DS3 Electrum
Lexus if-cc
Mercedes B-Class EV
think! city car
VW e up!
Ford C-Max Energi
Ford Mondeo Energi
Hyundai i30
Mitsubishi PHEV
Porsche 918
Volvo V60 (diesel plug-in)
Audi A4
Audi Q7
Honda Accord
Land Rover Range Rover
Mitsubishi Outlander
Porsche Panamera
VW Golf
VW up! hybrid
Ford C-Max
Ferrari LaFerrari
Hyundai ix35
This list is not complete and launch dates are subject to change.
Most manufacturers are looking at a range of technologies to bring to the market. Several manufacturers are combining their resources to develop alternatively-fuelled vehicles, such as Ford, Nissan and Mercedes joint project to bring fuel cell vehicles to the market by 2017. PSA and Mercedes have been the first to offer diesel-electric hybrids in some of their ranges, this technology my appear across further of their ranges and is also being developed by other manufacturers. Volvo were the first to introduce a plug-in hybrid diesel to the UK market in 2013, VW is also developing such technology with the VW Cross Blue. Manufacturers not already in the petrol/electric hybrid market are also looking at this aspect of the market, with several manufacturers at the Geneva motor show displaying such models.
Integrated Approach (IA) to help facilitate progress to lower CO2-emitting vehicles
The shape of the new car fleet can be influenced by a number of factors and industry believes the Integrated Approach is the most efficient way of achieving the environmental goals. The IA is about all stakeholders – manufacturers, fuel providers, consumers, regulators and policy makers – moving cohesively towards aims which benefit society as a whole. Manufacturers need to develop and bring to market more efficient vehicles which meet consumer choice and are competitively priced. Consumers need to buy these products and be realistic in their expectations. Regulators and policy makers can provide a long-term and progressive framework to encourage market transformation (including any provision of infrastructure).
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
Matching environmental and industrial policy
Industry also calls for policy makers to ensure the taxation system and other policies are long-term and support the development of the ultra-low carbon vehicle market. There needs to be an understanding that it will take time for new technologies to become widely accepted by the public, especially during a period of low economic growth and constrained consumer and business spending.
Support for low and ultra-low carbon vehicles is a key area which underpins the UK’s efforts to be a lead market and industrial base for new technology. The UK has great potential to excel and develop an international competitive advantage in this field. Focussed work through the Automotive Council ensures that the industry has a coordinated strategy for the transition to low carbon technologies.
SMMT seeks confirmation from government on its cross-departmental strategy on low carbon vehicles. The strategy update from the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV) will be a key opportunity for government to demonstrate that it is pursuing a coordinated industrial, environmental and consumer agenda through the development and support of the low carbon vehicle market in the UK. A refocus of government policy on ultra-low carbon vehicle infrastructure is a priority for SMMT, with the current Plugged-In Places programme due to end soon. SMMT calls for government to look at a national charging network and ensure that its energy policy is fully aligned with the move to low carbon vehicles.
In March 2013 UK H2 Mobility (a joint business and government group) is expected to report in detail on the potential for hydrogen transport in the UK, production pathways and distribution options, fuel cell electric vehicle supply, customer demand and the hydrogen refuelling station requirements. It will then move on to the business case for hydrogen.
There have been concerns that, given the state of public finances, the government may reduce the support for ultra-low carbon vehicles and push up motoring taxes. The industry recognises that motoring taxes are in place to influence vehicle purchase and use choices, as well as to collect revenue for general government spending. A clear, consistent, fair and long-term approach to motoring taxation and support for ultra-low carbon vehicles is necessary to help the market shift.
The Committee on Climate Change, like industry, has called for the Budget 2012 decision to remove the lower rates of Company Car Tax (CCT) for electric vehicles and ultra-low carbon vehicles to be reversed to help these sections of the market to take root. In 2012 over 80% of EVs were registered by fleets and business. These buyers are very sensitive to taxation measures and following the announcement there was a slowdown in EV registrations.
Industry also believes that there should be no radical reform of VED until at least 2020. In Budget 2012, government said it would review VED over the medium term. Industry believes VED should provide a gradual and predictable pathway encouraging lower emitting vehicles, but while the marketplace is fragile the government should not look to impose a financial burden on the sector nor disruptively revise the CO2 bands. Industry has also called for the proposed change in 2013 to the Writing Down Allowance (from 160g/km to 130g/km CO2) to be delayed by a year.
Business and consumers have broadly welcomed measures to postpone fuel duty rises, given the general increases in oil prices and concerns over the inflationary impacts of rising fuel prices on consumers and businesses. The announcement that the 3% penalty on diesels in CCT will be removed in 2016 was welcomed. There needs to be acceptance that measures to achieve tighter Euro standards limit the rate of future fuel efficiency.
Biofuels
Biofuels can also help the vehicle fleet deliver CO2 savings. The Committee on Climate Change supports a rise to an 8% share of biofuel in the petrol/diesel mix (up from around 3% currently), as long as the fuel is sustainably sourced and does not detract from food supplies. Industry is developing cars capable of running on higher blends.
Government procurement policy
Government can also do more to support the move to lower carbon vehicles, through its own vehicle replacement programme, which legally must consider fuel consumption and emissions, and enhanced information provision to consumers.
Local agenda
Local authorities can influence the type of vehicle bought and used in their area, through measures such as CO2-based road pricing or parking fees. London’s Congestion Charge scheme is arguably the largest and most influential of these types of schemes. At present proposals to allow discounts to cars emitting less than 75g/km of CO2, rather than 100g/km, are being consulted upon. This would significantly cut the number of eligible vehicles and focus the incentive on ultra-low carbon vehicles.
Car clubs and mobility schemes
Car clubs and mobility solutions are also changing the way people gain access to cars. This enables people to use a car fit for its specific journey purpose, rather than the single vehicle an owner would typically have at their disposal. Such innovative solutions could be designed to cut emissions from the car fleet. Similarly, fleet providers could become more influential in the type of vehicles they make available for users to choose from.
Technical solutions are only as good as the way in which the vehicles are used. There remains significant potential for real world CO2 savings through ecodriving.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.
UK manufacturers’ performance and outlook
UK vehicle producers have seen output recover from the recession. However, market conditions, especially for those with a reliance on markets in mainland Europe, remained challenging. UK manufacturers have benefitted from having products that were recently launched and well received by the market, as well as increasingly exporting to markets outside the EU.
Vehicle manufacturers have communicated improved vehicle efficiency strongly, to encourage consumers to replace their vehicles and receive the benefits of lower running costs. Several of the UK manufacturers make best-in-class type products for the market. Toyota GB in Burnaston was the first manufacturer in Europe to produce mainstream hybrid models. The hybrid Auris emits just 89g/km. The 1.4 litre diesel Auris also produces less than 100g/km of CO2. Vauxhall’s Astra, Honda’s Civic and the MINI are also available in sub-100g/km variants. The Nissan Qashqai, offering Dual Purpose styling and driving position, is available in a 119g/km variant.
Production of the electric Nissan LEAF range will start in the UK in 2013. The LEAF is to be powered by batteries produced in Sunderland. Other UK manufacturers are developing hybrid models and several low-volume manufacturers are also developing electric vehicles. The industry in the UK is developing and producing some 2.5 million highly efficient internal combustion engines, with BMW’s Hams Hall plant and Ford’s plants producing some of the new efficient engines to be fitted into vehicles produced in the UK and also overseas. Ford’s acclaimed new three-cylinder engine was designed at the Dunton Technical Centre. The UK automotive sector also has a strong history in light-weighting with Jaguar Land Rover’s use of aluminium and low volume manufacturers, such as Lotus and McLaren, using plastic composites and carbon fibre.
Support for low and ultra-low carbon vehicles is a key area which underpins the UK’s efforts to be a lead market and industrial base for new technology. The UK has great potential to excel and develop an international competitive advantage in this field. Focussed work through the Automotive Council ensures that the industry has a coordinated strategy for the transition to low carbon technologies.
To ensure the UK remains one of the leading destinations for foreign direct investment and to build upon investments already committed by the automotive sector, it is imperative that the overall UK business environment is competitive and provides a distinct rationale and incentive for companies to invest.
Government should look to ensure science and innovation funding reflects key UK industrial strengths, has a scale that is internationally competitive and is delivered through tried and tested routes such as the Technology Strategy Board or centres of excellence.
The creation and support of a joint government-industry funded Automotive Advanced Propulsion Centre of Excellence – a new collaborative R&D facility for the development of low carbon propulsion systems and their supply chains – would help enable the UK to strengthen its position in the supply of low carbon technologies.
Government could also support the Regional Growth Fund and Advanced Manufacturing Supply Chain Fund and putting them on a permanent footing.
SMMT calls on government to reaffirm its cross-departmental strategy on low carbon vehicles through the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV). The forthcoming strategy update from OLEV will be a key opportunity for government to demonstrate that it is pursuing a coordinated industrial, environmental and consumer agenda through the development and support of the low carbon vehicle market in the UK. A refocus of government policy on ultra-low carbon vehicle infrastructure is a priority for SMMT, where the current Plugged-In Places programme is due to expire. SMMT calls for government to look at a national charging network and ensure that its energy policy is fully aligned behind the move to low carbon vehicles.
The UK motor industry is already well placed to help lead the development and manufacture of lower CO2 emitting vehicles. It is imperative that environmental policy and industrial strategy agendas work together to ensure that while the UK moves towards a lower carbon economy and lower CO2 emitting fleet, it is done by enabling domestic manufacturers to help support this transition. This will lead to job and wealth creation, benefitting the wider UK economy and also potentially support further growth in exporting technologies, UK produced vehicles and components to other markets.
Summary
Industry is working to deliver more fuel efficient and lower CO2 products. This will help contribute to improving the environmental profile of the vehicle fleet and their use will help deliver savings in total CO2 emissions. The rate of progress and uptake of new technologies will be critical to achieving these aims. It is likely to require consumers to undertake step changes in their choice of vehicle, either through fuel switching or vehicle type, and also to maintain, drive and use that vehicle appropriately. Support for more significant switching of vehicles is likely to require a push by regulators and policy makers to shape consumer demand, but the pathway should be clearly set out and the development progressive rather than radical.
If you wish to read the report offline, click here to download the SMMT New Car CO2 Report 2013 as a PDF. If you would like to continue reading online, use the tabs at the top of the page to navigate between the different sections of the 2013 report.