UK new car and van outlook
The latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
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This outlook was undertaken amid a subdued economic setting, but on the back of recent growth in the new car market. The outlook was finalised ahead of the Budget on 26 November, where further tax increases are anticipated. The SMMT continues to push for the reversal of government’s plans to remove Employee Car Ownership Schemes (whose planned removal is not factored into this outlook).
LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles.
SMMT outlook for 2025 to 2026 – as at October 2025
2025
- New car market expected to grow 3% to 2.012 million units (breaking 2mn for the first time since 2019)
- BEV registrations expected to rise 22.8% to push market share to 23.3%
- PHEV market expected to grow 35.4% pushing share to 11.2%, HEVs to grow 8.6% and 14.1% share
- Petrol market is expected to fall -8.8% and cut market share to 46.2%, diesel to fall -15.8% to 5.1% share
- LCV market outlook is for a -8.7% drop to 321,000 units
- LCV BEV share is expected to reach 9.4%, with volumes up 47%
2026
- Car market expected to rise by 1% to 2.032 million units
- BEV market share anticipated to reach 28.2%, following volume growth of 22.3%
- PHEV market to grow 8.4% and market share to 12.1%, HEVs to grow 10.5% and reach 15.4% share
- Petrol market to decline -12.7% taking market share to 40%, diesel’s -15.8% and 4.3% share
- LCV market is anticipated to grow 4.2% to 335,000 units
- LCV BEV market share is expected to reach 14%, after 55.1% growth
2027
- Car market anticipated to rise 1.3% to 2.058 million units
- BEV market expected to rise 15.6% and push share to 32.2%
- PHEV market expected to grow 8.3% to 12.9% share, HEVs to grow 9% pushing market share to 16.6%
- Petrol market anticipated to slide -12.3% and market share to 34.6%, diesel to fall -13.8% to 3.7% share
- LCV market is expected to rise 48.4% to 337,000 units
- LCV BEV market share is expected to climb to 20.6%, with 48.4% volume growth
Note: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed.
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