UK new car and van outlook
The latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
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This outlook was undertaken during the time the Electric Car Grant was announced, but with no details on which vehicles will qualify and to which level of grant they will receive, the update in October (due for release on 5 November) will take that into more consideration.
Despite a still subdued economic backdrop and mounting concerns over tax rises to come in the Autumn, more positive news on trade deals and expected interest rate cuts, and a generally positive new car market to June lead to increased optimism on the car side in this July outlook, but there is a further downward revision for LCVs. The outlook is typically revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles.
SMMT outlook for 2025 to 2026 – as at July 2025
2025
- New car market expected to grow 1.7% to 1.986 million units (up from the 1.964mn we said in April)
- BEV registrations expected to rise 23.7% to push market share to 23.8% (up from our April 23.5% view)
- PHEV market is anticipated to rise 29.7%, pushing market share to 10.9% (we said 10% in April)
- HEV market share is expected to reach 14.5%, after a 9.9% rise in volumes
- Diesel market is expected to fall -13.0% and cut market share to 5.4%
- Petrol market is anticipated to decline -11.4%, reducing market share to 45.5%
- LCV market outlook is for a -8.7% drop to 321,000 units (down from 337,000 view in April)
- LCV BEV share is expected to reach 8.6% (we said 9.1% in April), with volumes up 35.1%
2026
- Car market expected to rise 1.7% to 2.019 million units (up on the 1.992mn we said in April)
- BEV market share anticipated to reach 28.2% (we said 28.0% in April), with volumes up 20.5%
- PHEV market is expected to grow 10.8% and lift market share up to 11.9%
- HEV market outlook is for 12.8% growth to take market share to 16.0%
- Diesel market share is expected to fall to 4.5%, after a -15.9% drop in volumes
- Petrol market is expected to fall -11.8% and market share to slip to 39.4%
- LCV market is anticipated to grow 6.1% to 341,000 units (we said 348,000 in April)
- BEV market share is expected to reach 13.7% (up on our April view of 13.3%), after 69.1% growth
Note: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed.
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