UK new car and van outlook
The latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
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This outlook was set against on-going concerns around anaemic economic growth, but on the back of the car market surpassing two million units in 2025 and several supportive measures announced in the November Budget for the automotive sector, notably for the electric vehicle market. These included further support for the Electric Car Grant and changes to the expensive car supplement threshold on VED. However, the announcement of eVED, a pence per mile charge for EVs due to take effect from 2028 (with on-going open consultation), creates uncertainty around the transition.
The outlook is typically revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles.
SMMT outlook for 2026 to 2027 – as at January 2026
2026
- New car market is expected to rise to 2.048 million units, 1.4% above the 2025 outturn
- BEV car market is anticipated to grow by 23.3%, pushing market share to 28.5% (from 23.4% in ’25)
- PHEV market is expected to rise by 14.9% and push market share to 12.6% (vs 11.1% in ’25)
- HEV market is envisaged to improve by 8% in volume terms, enabling market share to climb to 14.8%
- Petrol market is expected to decline -12.7%, pushing market share down to 40% (from 46.4% in ’25)
- Diesel market share is expected to fall to 4.1% (from 5.1% in ’25) after a -18.8% fall in volumes
- LCV market is anticipated to grow 1.9% to 321,000 units
- LCV BEV market is expected to grow 51.5%, pushing market share to 13.1% (from 8.8% in ’25)
2027
- Car market anticipated to rise 1.3% to 2.058 million units
- BEV market expected to rise 15.6% and push share to 32.2%
- PHEV market expected to grow 8.3% to 12.9% share, HEVs to grow 9% pushing market share to 16.6%
- Petrol market anticipated to slide -12.3% and market share to 34.6%, diesel to fall -13.8% to 3.7% share
- LCV market is expected to rise 0.6% to 337,000 units
- LCV BEV market share is expected to climb to 20.6%, with 48.4% volume growth
Note: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed.
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