Seven consecutive months of growth is a welcome sign of renewed confidence in the UK van market. October’s 11.4% rise, with 25,510 new light commercial vehicles registered, provides further evidence of recovery after a challenging 2025. Encouragingly, the transition to zero emission vans is also gathering pace, with battery electric van registrations increasing 58.0% to 3,369, making this the best October yet. The year-to-date BEV share now stands at 11.0%, up from 9.1% last year – notable progress given the tough environment for investment this year but still 13 percentage points off the ZEV Mandate target share of 24%.
Manufacturers are straining to meet the challenge, having invested massively in model choice, with more than 40 zero emission options now available to suit the vast majority of operator needs, along with attractive discounts on their sale. At the same time, government’s Plug-in Van Grant and Depot Charging Scheme are providing essential support, helping businesses manage the upfront investment required to decarbonise their fleets.
Such levels of support is still not enough to deliver on mandated ambition, however, which will only get steeper in the years ahead. The latest outlook expects BEV shares of 14.9% in 2027 and 18.8% in 2028, but against mandated targets of 34% and 46% respectively. Regulatory ambition must clearly be more closely aligned with real-world market demand, else manufacturer investment in production capacity, model rollout and operator choice will be restricted.
Elsewhere in the market, the sharp -52.9% fall in pickup across 2026 – following last year’s changes to the tax treatment of double-cabs – demonstrates how sensitive the commercial vehicle market can respond to investment barriers. That is a tale for the transition: to provide stable, supportive policy that makes a real difference, sending the right signal to operators that now is the time to switch away from their older and more polluting vehicles.
A long-term commitment to purchase incentives, depot upgrade support and faster rollout of public charging suitable for vans is vital here. So is tackling lengthy depot grid connection waits, prioritising van depots in plans for GB Grid. Manufacturers have invested heavily in competitive products that are ready for the transition, so the priority now must on be creating an operating environment that is also ready. That will take time, however, which the mandate review must reflect.
