UK new car and van outlook

The latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.

To purchase more detailed data visit the SMMT DataShop

SHOP NOW

The outlook reflects stronger-than-expected growth in the new car market to date, supported by an expanding range of models and growing competition from new market entrants. The UK economy has surprised on the upside, but growth remains modest and global trading conditions remain uncertain amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. The outlook was undertaken ahead of the Budget on 28 October. The transition to electric vehicles is gaining momentum, but both car and especially van markets are expected to fall short of the ZEV Mandate headline targets (and be closest to the lowest trajectories proposed in the ZEVM consultation).

The outlook includes our first view on 2028 and is typically revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.

LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles.

October 2026 Outlook

*Thousands*	All cars total	Petrol cars	Diesel cars	BEV cars	PHEV cars	HEV cars	All LCVs total	BEV LCVs
2019	2,311	1,525	616	38	35	98	366	3
2025	2,021	938	104	473	225	280	315	28
2026 (f)	2,219	898	97	603	316	305	329	34
2027 (f)	2,267	783	82	726	355	321	328	49
2028 (f)	2,320	660	69	870	391	330	327	62

SMMT outlook for 2026 to 2028 – as at October 2026

2026

New car market is expected to rise to 2.219 million units, 9.8% above the 2025 outturn
BEV registrations expected to grow by 27.4%, pushing market share to 27.2% (from 23.4% in ’25)
PHEV expected to rise by 40.3%, increasing market share to 14.2%, HEVs to grow by 9.0%, reaching a 13.8% share
Petrol to decline -4.2%, cutting market share to 40.5%, diesel to fall -6.9% and share falling to 4.4%
LCV market is expected to grow by 4.2% to 329,000 units
LCV BEV market (to 3.5T) to grow 23.4%, increasing market share to 10.4% (from 8.8% in ’25)

2028

New car market anticipated to rise 2.3% compared to 2027 expectations to 2.320 million units
BEV market to rise by 19.9% in volume terms, pushing market share to 37.5%
PHEVs to grow 10.2% taking market share to 16.9%, HEVs to grow 2.5% with 14.2% market share
Petrol to fall by -15.6% cutting market share to 28.5%, diesel to decline -15.9% with share down 3.0%
LCV market is expected to be slip to 327,000 units
LCV BEV market (to 3.5T) to grow by 26.4% and push market share to 18.8%

2027

New car market anticipated to rise by 2.1% on our 2026 expectations to 2.267 million units
BEV market to rise by a fifth in volume terms, pushing market share to 32.0%
PHEVs to grow 12.4% taking market share to 15.7%, HEVs to grow 5.2% with 14.2% market share
Petrol to fall by -12.9% cutting market share to 34.5%, diesel to decline -15.3% with share down 3.6%
LCV market is expected to dip compared to 2026 expectations, to 328,000 units
LCV BEV market (to 3.5T) to grow by 42.1% and push market share to 14.9%

Note: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed.

Next Forecast