UK new car and van outlook
The latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
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This outlook was set against the uncertainty of the impact of the Middle East conflict, but on the back of the car market surpassing two million units in 2025 and early growth momentum in 2026, supported by recent new entrants to the market. The transition to EVs continues at pace, but has not matched earlier expectations, and whilst rising petrol prices could drive up interest, high energy costs, concerns about the new eVED pence per mile charge for EVs and higher borrowing costs could undermine demand. The outlook for LCVs was revised down, notably so for BEVs on the back of the subdued start to 2026; strong growth is still envisaged, but below ZEV mandate ambitions.
The outlook is typically revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles.
SMMT outlook for 2026 to 2027 – as at April 2026
2026
- New car market is expected to rise to 2.093 million units, 3.6% above the 2025 outturn
- BEV car market is anticipated to grow by 18.7%, pushing market share to 26.8% (from 23.4% in ’25)
- PHEV market is expected to rise by 25.8% and push market share to 13.5% (vs 11.1% in ’25)
- HEV market is expected to rise by 10.7% in volume terms, and to a 14.8% market share (13.9% in ’25)
- Petrol market is expected to decline -9.5%, pushing market share down to 40.6% (from 46.4% in ’25)
- Diesel market share is expected to fall to 4.3% (from 5.1% in ’25) after a -14.2% fall in volumes
- LCV market is anticipated to slip -0.5% to 314,000 units
- LCV BEV market is expected to grow 25.2%, increasing market share to 11.1% (from 8.8% in ’25)
2027
- Car market anticipated to rise 1.4% on 2026 expectations to 2.121 million units
- BEV market expected to rise 21.0% in volume terms, pushing market share to 32.0%
- PHEV market is expected to grow 10.4% and drive market share up to 14.8%
- HEVs are anticipated to grow 5.3%, raising market share to 15.4%
- Petrol market is envisaged to fall by -14.1% and cut market share to 34.4%
- Diesel market is expected to decline by -18.3% and reduce market share to 3.4%
- LCV market is expected to dip a further -0.9% on 2026 expectations to 311,000 units
- LCV BEV market share is expected to climb to 16.5%, after volume growth of 47.4%
Note: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed.
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