New Car and Van Forecasts Vehicle Data

UK new car and LCV registrations 2016 and 2017

05 February 2016 #New Car and Van Forecasts #Vehicle Data


  • Forecasts are revised on a quarterly basis in January, April, July and October.
  • The latest survey of participants’ own views was conducted during January 2016.
  • SMMT’s forecast is an average of data received from participating market analysts (panel).
  • Each forecast received is given equal weight and is anonymised.

2015 data

  • New car registrations: 2.633m units, up by 6.3% on 2014’s 2.476m.
  • Diesel penetration: 48.5%, it was 49.8% in 2012.
  • New light commercial vehicle (LCV, to 3.5 tonne) registrations: 371,830 units, up 18.7% on 2013’s 321,681 total.

SMMT forecasts for 2016 and 2017 – as at January 2016



  • New car registrations at 2.629m units, just 0.2% down on 2015’s level.
  • New car diesel volume of 1.271m units, a 48.4% share of total car registrations.
  • New LCV registrations at 381,000 units, up 2.5% on the 2015 volume.


  • New cars registrations at 2.595m units, down 1.3% on the 2016 forecast.
  • New car diesel volume of 1.255m units, down 1.3% on 2016’s forecast and 48.4% of total car registrations.
  • New LCV registrations at 373,000 units, down 2.0% on the 2016 forecast.

Notes: car forecasts rounded to nearest 10,000 and LCV to 1,000 unit.
Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis, other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed.

Next revision

  • The forecasts are next scheduled to be revised in April 2016; results will be posted in the w/b 25th April.


  • The project work is managed by SMMT’s Economics Team, PPVL Department – e-mail

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